A new set of December Oscar predictions

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The precursors are almost a daily occurrence now, so why not make new Academy Award predictions a weekly one too? That’s the goal here, as we enter the middle of December. The weather on the east coast is frigid, but the Oscar season is heating up, that’s for sure. The last X factors are revealing themselves (at least for me today, as I go see All the Money in the World and The Greatest Showman right after publishing this), so the guilds and precursors are separating things into contender and pretender categories. It’s almost all done. Yet, there’s still plenty to figure out.

Working off of the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations, plus the announced short lists for Best Documentary Feature and Best Foreign Language Feature, among others, we have some changes here. Notably, Get Out has shot up in a number of categories, which even I’ll admit is a bit surprising. SAG is the one to pay heed to though, as the Best Picture winner almost always comes from their Best Cast Ensemble lineup. That potentially sets up a big battle between Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, though that remains to be seen a bit. For now though, on to my picks…


Here now are my newest Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Dunkirk
4. Get Out
5. The Shape of Water
6. The Post
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. The Florida Project
9. I, Tonya
10. The Big Sick

Next in line: 11. Mudbound 12. Darkest Hour 13. Phantom Thread 14. The Disaster Artist 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 16. All the Money in the World 17. The Greatest Showman 18. Blade Runner 2049 19. Molly’s Game 20. Battle of the Sexes 21. Detroit 22. Last Flag Flying 23. Downsizing 24. Logan 25. mother! 26. Wonder Woman 27. Stronger 28. Wonderstruck 29. Coco 30. Wonder Wheel

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
4. Steven Spielberg – The Post
5. Jordan Peele – Get Out

Next in line: 6. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name 7. Sean Baker – The Florida Project 8. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 9. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour 10. Dee Rees – Mudbound 11. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 12. Craig Gillespie – I, Tonya 13. Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049 14. Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World 15. Rian Johnson – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
4. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
5. Tom Hanks – The Post

Next in line: 6. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out 7. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq 8. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger 9. Christian Bale – Hostiles 10. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 11. Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying 12. Andrew Garfield – Breathe 10. 13. Robert Pattinson – Good Time 14. Mark Hamill – Star Wars: The Last Jedi 15. Sam Elliott – The Hero

BEST ACTRESS

1. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
3. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep – The Post

Next in line: 6. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 7. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game 8. Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread 9. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes 10. Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 11. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel 12. Diane Kruger – In the Fade 13. Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 14. Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick 15. Gal Gadot – Wonder Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
4. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
5. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. Mark Rylance – Dunkirk 8. Michael Stulhbarg – Call Me By Your Name 9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 10. Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour 11. Garret Hedlund – Mudbound 12. Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying 13. Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water 14. Will Poulter – Detroit 15. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
3. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
4. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
5. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

Next in line: 6. Hong Chau – Downsizing 7. Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime 8. Melissa Leo – Novitiate 9. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip 10. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 11. Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread 12. Kristen Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 13. Claire Foy – Breathe 14. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman 15. Carrie Fisher – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Big Sick

Next in line: 6. The Shape of Water 7. Darkest Hour 8. The Florida Project 9. The Post 10. Dunkirk 11. I, Tonya 12. Detroit 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Coco 15. Wonder Wheel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly’s Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Logan

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7. Last Flag Flying 8. Wonderstruck 9. Stronger 10. The Death of Stalin 11. Wonder 12. Victoria and Abdul 13. The Beguiled 14. Thank You For Your Service 15. Blade Runner 2049

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. The LEGO Batman Movie
5. Ferdinand

Next in line: 6. The Boss Baby 7. The Girl Without Hands 8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 9. Cars 3 10. The Star 11. The LEGO Ninjago Movie 12. Despicable Me 3 13. In This Corner of the World 14. A Silent Voice 15. My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Dunkirk
5. Beauty and the Beast

Next in line: 6. Phantom Thread 7. Darkest Hour 8. The Post 9. The Disaster Artist 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Wonder Wheel 13. The Beguiled 14. Downsizing 15. Thor: Ragnarok

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Call Me By Your Name 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. Wonderstruck 10. Lady Bird 11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 12. Wonder Wheel 13. The Beguiled 14. mother! 15. Downsizing

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Beguiled
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Victoria and Abdul
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. The Shape of Water 7. Darkest Hour 8. Wonder Wheel 8. The Greatest Showman 10. Dunkirk 11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 12. Mudbound 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Wonder Woman 15. Blade Runner 2049

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. The Post
4. I, Tonya
5. Lady Bird

Next in line: 6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. The Shape of Water 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. Darkest Hour 10. mother! 11. Phantom Thread 12. Last Flag Flying 13. Baby Driver 14. The Disaster Artist 15. Molly’s Game

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. I, Tonya

Next in line: 4. Logan 5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 6. The Shape of Water 7. Wonder Woman 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. Thor: Ragnorak 10. Justice League 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Phantom Thread 13. Downsizing 14. Victoria and Abdul 15. All the Money in the World

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. Spider-Man: Homecoming 8. Wonder Woman 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Kong: Skull Island 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Wonder Woman
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. Baby Driver 7. The Greatest Showman 8. The Shape of Water 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Spider-Man: Homecoming 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Kong: Skull Island 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. War for the Planet of the Apes
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Wonder Woman 7. The Shape of Water 8. Spider-Man: Homecoming 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Logan 11. Okja 12. Alien: Covenant 13. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 14. Life 15. Justice League

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. Phantom Thread
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Victoria and Abdul 8. Three Billboards of Ebbing, Missouri 9. Blade Runner 2049 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. Coco 12. The Greatest Showman 13. Baby Driver 14. Wind River 15. Wonderstruck

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Coco
2. The Greatest Showman
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Detroit
5. Call Me By Your Name

Next in line: 6. The Hero 7. Ferdinand 8. Fifty Shades Darker 9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 10. Marshall 11. Chasing Coral 12. Only The Brave 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Thank You For Your Service 15. A Ghost Story

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Jane
2. City of Ghosts
3. Icarus
4. Chasing Coral
5. Strong Island

6. Human Flow 7. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 8. Long Strange Trip 9. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail 10. Last Men in Aleppo 11. Faces Places 12. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library 13. LA 92 14. Unrest 15. One of Us

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. In the Fade
2. Foxtrot
3. A Fantastic Woman
4. The Square
5. Loveless

6. On Body and Soul 7. The Insult 8. Félicité 9. The Wound 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Dear Basketball
3. Fox and the Whale
4. Revolting Rhymes
5. Negative Space

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Ram Dass, Going Home
2. Heroin(e)
3. Alone
4. 116 Cameras
5. Edith+Eddie

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Lost Face
2. Witnesses
3. DeKalb Elementary
4. Facing Mecca
5. My Nephew Emmett


Stay tuned for an update next week!

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