What to do with “First Man”: Updated Academy Award predictions for late October


As we wrap up the month of October, it’s clear that much is still undecided in the Oscar race. At the same time, some definite frontrunners have emerged. For today, my thoughts mainly turn to Damien Chazelle’s First Man and what to do with its awards candidacy. In light of disappointing box office numbers, will Oscar voters be less likely to check it off? My sense is no, in terms of nominations. However, aside from some below the line categories, members of the Academy may no longer embrace it as an overall frontrunner. You’ll see more below, but it’s something to just keep in mind.

There’s some tinkering to be found across the board here, update wise, and not just in terms of First Man. Some embargoes are in place right now, like for Mary Queen of Scots (I’ve seen it but won’t be saying anything until sometime next month), but by and large, we’re working with very few question marks. For example, I’ve seen Ben is Back, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Boy Erased, just to name a few. More on them next week/the weeks to come, but just know that I’m factoring the quality of the work in when doing these predictions. It still seems like a great haul for Bradley Cooper, but that can still easily change…


Here now are my latest Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. A Star Is Born
2. Green Book
3. BlackKklansman
4. The Favourite
5. Roma
6. First Man
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Black Panther
9. Vice
10. Mary Poppins Returns

Next in line: 11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 12. Widows 13. Eighth Grade 14. The Front Runner 15. On the Basis of Sex 16. Boy Erased 17. Welcome to Marwen 18. Mary Queen of Scots 19. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 20. Stan & Ollie 21. Wildlife 22. Cold War 23. The Old Man and the Gun 24. Bohemian Rhapsody 25. Beautiful Boy 26. Ben is Back 27. The Sisters Brothers 28. White Boy Rick 29. Sorry to Bother You 30. The Mule

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
2. Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
3. Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
4. Damien Chazelle – First Man
5. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Next in line: 6. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Peter Farrelly – Green Book 8. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 9. Adam McKay – Vice 10. Steve McQueen – Widows

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
2. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
3. Christian Bale – Vice
4. Ryan Gosling – First Man
5. Lucas Hedges – Ben is Back

Next in line: 6. Clint Eastwood – The Mule 7. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody 8. John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie 9. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun 10. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner

BEST ACTRESS

1. Stefani Germanotta (Lady Gaga) – A Star Is Born
2. Glenn Close – The Wife
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Next in line: 6. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife 7. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns 8. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex 9. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots 10. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
4. Robert Forster – What They Had
5. Sam Rockwell – Vice

Next in line: 6. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy 7. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther 8. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman 9. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows 10. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (or Sorry to Bother You)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amy Adams – Vice
2. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Claire Foy – First Man
4. Marina de Tavira – Roma
5. Emma Stone – The Favourite

Next in line: 6. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased 7. Natalie Portman – Vox Lux 8. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite 9. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots 10. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Vice
5. Eighth Grade

Next in line: 6. Sorry to Bother You 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Stan & Ollie 9. On the Basis of Sex 10. A Quiet Place

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlackKklansman
2. A Star Is Born
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. First Man
5. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Next in line: 6. The Front Runner 7. Black Panther 8. Wildlife 9. Widows 10. Mary Queen of Scots

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
5. Mirai

Next in line: 6. The Grinch 7. Smallfoot 8. Early Man 9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 10. Sherlock Gnomes

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Next in line: 6. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 8. Mary Queen of Scots 9. If Beale Street Could Talk 10. A Star Is Born

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Roma
2. First Man
3. A Star Is Born
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. The Favourite

Next in line: 6. Cold War 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. BlackKklansman 9. Black Panther 10. Annihilation

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4. The Favourite
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. Colette 7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 8. A Wrinkle in Time 9. First Man 10. Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST FILM EDITING

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. BlackKklansman
5. Roma

Next in line: 6. The Favourite 7. If Beale Street Could Talk 8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 9. Vice 10. The Front Runner

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Black Panther
2. The Favourite
3. Mary Poppins Returns

Next in line: 4. A Star Is Born 5. Mary Queen of Scots 6. A Wrinkle in Time 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 8. Ready Player One

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 7. Ready Player One 8. Aquaman 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 7. Ready Player One 8. Aquaman 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. Annihilation
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Next in line: 6. Ready Player One 7. Ant-Man and the Wasp 8. Aquaman 9. A Wrinkle in Time 10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlackKklansman
4. The Sisters Brothers
5. Mary Poppins Returns

Next in line: 6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 7. Mary Queen of Scots 8. Boy Erased 9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 10. Incredibles 2

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born (Shallow)
2. A Star Is Born (I’ll Never Love Again)
3. Boy Erased (Revelation)
4. Black Panther (All the Stars)
5. Deadpool 2 (Ashes)

Next in line: 6. A Star Is Born (Always Remember Us This Way) 7. Hearts Beat Loud (Hearts Beat Loud) 8. Dumplin (Girl in the Movies) 9. Mary Poppins Returns (???) 10. Smallfoot (Finally Free)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Minding the Gap
4. RBG
5. Fahrenheit 11/9

Next in line: 6. The Final Year 7. Whitney 8. The King 9. The Bleeding Edge 10. Generation Wealth

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Roma
2. Capernaum
3. Cold War
4. Shoplifters
5. Never Look Away

Next in line: 6. Sunset 7. Burning 8. The Guilty 9. Dogman 10. Birds of Passage

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???


Stay tuned for another update at the start of next month!

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What to do with “First Man”: Updated Academy Award predictions for late October

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