Year in Advance Academy Award predictions


There’s no rest for the weary. As the Oscar winning film Crazy Heart once said in its signature song, “this ain’t no place for the weary kind”. Yes, less than a week after the 90th Academy Awards, I’m already bringing you year in advance predictions. Almost exactly a year ago, I did this (as you’ll also see below, but more on that in a bit), so that’s sort of what you do in early March when the most recent show is in the rearview mirror and you need something to look forward to. Plus, it’s just plain fun. This is always a pleasure, and good for a laugh a year later, if nothing else.

At this early juncture, it’s all guesswork, but some potential contenders do stick out to me. The ones prominently mentioned below include Damien Chazelle’s La La Land follow up First Man, Adam McKay’s Backseat, Jason Reitman’s The Front Runner (Reitman also has Tully as one to keep an eye on), and of course Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. Throw in Ryan Coogler’s sensation that is Black Panther and there are plenty of contenders to sift through, sight unseen (with the exception of Black Panther). Also worth keeping an eye out for, we have possible players like Woody Allen’s A Rainy Day in New York, Bradley Cooper’s A Star is Born, James Gray’s Ad Astra, Luca Guadagnino’s Rio, Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk, Spike Lee’s Black Klansman, Mike Leigh’s Peterloo, Steve McQueen’s Widows, Bryan Singer’s (or at least sort of his) Bohemian Rhapsody, and many more. For the moment, it’s all guesswork, since nothing really has been seen, and everything is a hypothetical. For comparison this is what my year in advance predictions looked like around this time last year:

BEST PICTURE

1. Dunkirk
2. Mother!
3. Darkest Hour
4. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
5. Molly’s Game
6. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
7. The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
8. Downsizing
9. Battle of the Sexes
10. The Current War

Next in line: 11. Triple Frontier 12. Call Me By Your Name 13. The Greatest Showman 14. Mudbound 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 16. Mary Madelene 17. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic 18. Stronger 19. Tully 20. Wind River 21. Thank You For Your Service 22. Wonderstruck 23. Chappaquiddick 24. Wonder Wheel 25. Logan

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Darren Aronofsky – Mother!
3. Kathryn Bigelow – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
4. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project

Next in line: 6. Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game 7. Alexander Payne – Downsizing 8. Steven Spielberg – The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara 9. Alfonso Gomez-Rejon – The Current War 10. J.C. Chandor – Triple Frontier

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
3. Matt Damon – Downsizing
4. Oscar Isaac – The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
5. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger

Next in line: 6. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 7. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War 8. Jason Clarke – Chappaquiddick 9. Liam Neeson – Felt 10. Jeremy Renner – Wind River

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
2. Jennifer Lawrence – Mother!
3. Rooney Mara – Mary Madelene
4. Charlize Theron – Tully
5. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel 7. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 8. Kristen Wiig – Downsizing 9. Emma Watson – The Circle 10. Elizabeth Olsen – Wind River

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Bruce Dern – Chappaquiddick
2. Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game
3. Mark Rylance – The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
4. Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
5. Jason Clarke – Mudbound

Next in line: 6. Joaquin Phoenix – Mary Madelene 7. Michael Shannon – The Current War 8. Tom Hanks – The Circle 9. Patrick Stewart – Logan 10. Tom Hardy – Dunkirk

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Michelle Pfeiffer – Mother!
2. Lily James – Darkest Hour
3. Kate Mara – Chappaquiddick
4. Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
5. Katherine Waterston – The Current War

Next in line: 6. Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman 7. Kirsten Dunst – The Beguiled 8. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 9. Lesley Manville – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project 10. Dafne Keen – Logan

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Mother!
2. Downsizing
3. Darkest Hour
4. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
5. Dunkirk

Next in line: 6. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project 7. Triple Frontier 8. Wonder Wheel 9. Wind River 10. Battle of the Sexes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Molly’s Game
2. The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Thank You For Your Service
5. Stronger

Next in line: 6. Mudbound 7. The Beguiled 8. Wonderstruck 9. The Lost City of Z 10. Logan

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Cars 3
4. Ferdinand
5. Despicable Me 3

Next in line: 6. The LEGO Ninjago Movie 7. Blazing Samurai 8. Captain Underpants 9. Leap! 10. The Boss Baby

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
5. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. The Lost City of Z 7. The Beguiled 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. The Current War 10. Blade Runner 2046

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
4. Mother!
5. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2049 7. Downsizing 8. The Beguiled 9. Triple Frontier 10. Darkest Hour

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
2. Dunkirk
3. The Beguiled
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

Next in line: 6. Mudbound 7. The Beguiled 8. The Lost City of Z 9. Blade Runner 2046 10. The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
4. Mother!
5. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. Blade Runner 2046 8. Molly’s Game 9. The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara 10. Downsizing

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
3. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project

Next in line: 4. Logan 5. The Lost City of Z 6. Spider-Man: Homecoming 7. Justice League 8. Thor: Ragnorak

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming
4. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
5. Blade Runner 2046

Next in line: 6. Justice League 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
4. Spider-Man: Homecoming
5. Blade Runner 2046

Next in line: 6. Justice League 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Dunkirk
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. Downsizing
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2046 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Justice League 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. Mother!
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
5. The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2046 7. The Current War 8. Downsizing 9. Darkest Hour 10. The Lost City of Z

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

?

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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As you can see, it was a mixed bag, at best. That being said, I was on to something with Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, and Phantom Thread, in Best Picture at least. Make of that what you will for next year, but let’s get to it…


Here now is my first set of early Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. First Man
2. Backseat
3. The Front Runner
4. The Irishman
5. Black Panther
6. On the Basis of Sex
7. Where’d You Go, Bernadette?
8. Boy Erased
9. The Women of Marwen
10. Wildlife

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
2. Adam McKay – Backseat
3. Jason Reitman – The Front Runner
4. Damien Chazelle – First Man
5. Ryan Coolger – Black Panther

BEST ACTOR

1. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner
2. Ryan Gosling – First Man
3. Christian Bale – Backseat
4. Steve Carell – The Women of Marwen
5. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased

BEST ACTRESS

1. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex
2. Amy Adams – Backseat
3. Charlize Theron – Tully
4. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots
5. Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go Bernadette?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Rockwell – Backseat
2. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
3. Bruce Dern – White Boy Rick
4. Corey Stoll – First Man
5. Billy Crudup – Where’d You Go Bernadette?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots
2. Mackenzie Davis – Tully
3. Claire Foy – First Man
4. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner
5. Diane Kruger – The Women of Marwen

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Tully
2. Backseat
3. On the Basis of Sex
4. Under the Silver Lake
5. Ad Astra

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Front Runner
2. First Man
3. Wildlife
4. The Irishman
5. Where’d You Go Bernadette?

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
5. The Grinch

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. First Man
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Ready Player One
5. Ad Astra

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Ad Astra
2. The Irishman
3. First Man
4. A Star is Born
5. Under the Silver Lake

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. A Wrinkle in Time

BEST FILM EDITING

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. The Irishman
4. The Front Runner
5. Backseat

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
3. Black Panther
4. A Star is Born
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
3. Black Panther
4. A Star is Born
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Annihilation
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Ready Player One
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Ready Player One
4. Under the Silver Lake
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Hearts Beat Loud
2. A Star is Born
3. Fifty Shades Freed
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Black Panther

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. The Final Year
2. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
3. RBG
4. On Her Shoulders
5. Inventing Tomorrow

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Roma
2. Sunset
3. Cold War
4. Loro
5. Ismael’s Ghosts

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???


Stay tuned for more advance predictions soon!

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